Pacemaker Fishing Forum

I had to think about that for a second…

Ernie wrote:

I had to think about that for a second…

In the 70's, this was the norm for most households.  We'd use a brink, but the local ware store would carry a similar product for 10x the price

I fell asleep twice while reading this. I think we need a long soaking rain every Monday for two months.

Ernie wrote:

New article...

What is the Outlook?

ICPRB’s Section for Cooperative Water Supply Operations on the Potomac (CO-OP) was established to serve as a cooperative technical center on water resources in the Potomac basin. CO-OP staff publish the Water Supply Outlook on a monthly basis between April and October of each year. It provides an update on the possibility of water supply releases from the area’s reservoirs based on long-term precipitation data, flows, and other information for the Potomac basin.

Summary/Conclusions

There is an above-normal probability of releases from the Washington metropolitan area’s backup water supply reservoirs for the 2023 summer and fall seasons. These releases are typically prompted by low flows resulting from a combination of insufficient summer precipitation and low groundwater levels. July’s average precipitation in the Potomac Basin was 0.4 inches below normal. Although recent rainfall improved conditions reported in the U.S. Seasonal Outlook and the U.S. Drought Monitor, on July 28th, CO-OP resumed daily drought monitoring. Presently, the Potomac River flow at the U.S. Geological Survey’s gauge in Point of Rocks, Maryland, remains below CO-OP’s daily monitoring trigger of 2,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). The basin is also experiencing a long-term cumulative precipitation deficit of approximately 6.4 inches below normal (11 to 12 percent below normal). As a result, the adjusted stream flow at Little Falls remains below normal but remains above the 10th percentile, while groundwater monitoring wells used in the outlook indicate below-normal levels. Despite the current conditions, the Potomac River’s flow is adequate to meet the water demands of the Washington metropolitan area without requiring releases from upstream reservoirs. Thanks to well-designed drought-contingency plans, the area is well-prepared to handle further reductions in flow.

ICPRB’s Low Flow Outlook

There is a 15 to 38 percent conditional probability that natural Potomac flow will drop below 600 to 700 million gallons per day (MGD) at Little Falls through December 31 of this year; at these flow levels, water supply releases from Jennings Randolph and Little Seneca reservoirs may occur. Releases occur when the predicted flow is less than demand plus a required environmental flow-by. Drinking water demand ranges from 400 to 700 MGD during the summer months, and the minimum flow-by at Little Falls is 100 MGD. Natural flow is defined as observed flow at the Little Falls gage plus total Washington metropolitan Potomac withdrawals, with an adjustment made to remove the effect of North Branch reservoir releases on stream flow.

The conditional probability is estimated by analyzing the historical stream flow records and considering recent stream flow values, precipitation totals for the prior 12 months, current groundwater levels, and the current Palmer Drought Index. Past years in which watershed conditions most closely resemble current conditions are weighted more heavily in determining conditional probability. The historical, or unconditional, probability is based on analyzing the historical record without weighing current conditions. The 15 to 38 percent conditional probability compares to the 7 to 15 percent historical probability and is considered the more reliable indicator.

Ha!